At this time of year, we remind ourselves of the need to switch off and re-energise ready for the challenges that 2009 will undoubtedly bring. Earlier today, a good friend of mine sent me this message which I thought very profound, let me share it with you…
To realise the value of ten years; ask a newly divorced couple.
To realise the value of four years; ask a graduate.
To realise the value of one year; ask a student who has failed a final exam.
To realise the value of nine months; ask a mother who gave birth to a still born.
To realise the value of one month; ask a mother who has given birth to a premature baby.
To realise the value of one week; ask an editor of a weekly newspaper.
To realise the value of one hour; ask the lovers who are waiting to meet.
To realise the value of one minute; ask a person who has missed the train, bus or plane.
To realise the value of one-second; ask a person who has survived an accident…
To realise the value of one millisecond; ask the person who has won a silver medal in the Olympics
Time waits for no one. Treasure every moment you have. You will treasure it even more when you can share it with someone special. To realise the value of a friend; lose one.
Peace and prosperity to all .
If you don’t live in the life of currency movements, then you may be totally oblivious to the further slides in the strength of sterling in the past week. It’s taken another knock of around 16% since the end of November vs. the Euro and around 8% against the dollar.
So, what does this mean for technology?
Here’s my prediction. All major goods are going to go up in price, by anywhere between 15%-30% depending on what you are buying and where it’s made. Sterling has slidden against all the major manufacturing currencies, the currency slide is so large it can’t be absorbed by the OEM’s, it will be passed on meaning higher prices in the stores.
So, my advice is if you are planning to buy something like a new TV, do it now or buy in the Jan sales at the very least, don’t wait as prices will go up not down. Unlike cars, the technology supply chain is much leaner, margins are smaller, most manufacturing is dollar based and the pound is in trouble.
So, dig deep, buy it now and save a packet or pay more later.
It really underlines the sense of crisis the world is in, when a company that has been making profits for 67 years, posts its first losses since it started keeping records. Toyota, arguably the best managed company in the world, has rocked Japanese business by announcing a Y150bn loss and further contributed to the slump in Japanese exports.
It’s a telling reminder that the waters ahead are unchartered. Can you continue to believe in economics when the rules keep being re-written day by day? I wonder what lessons will be learnt in the classrooms of 2050?
Further news that the Bank of England failed to act quickly enough to soaring house prices and crazy borrowing does nothing but increase the lack of confidence in the system. What’s coming next?
My advice is to fall back on good contingency planning. Do you have a plan B or worst case scenario? Do you know your trigger moments? What are the signs? If you don’t have a plan B, get one.
Which is better, hide bad news under the covers or get it out in the open so you can do something about it? So many businesses run cultures where the protocols mean that to speak up means you get your head shot off, “leave it to the management we know best”, a culture of fear.
Compared with other businesses who see bad news as something that needs to be tackled immediately, broken down, worked on, resolved. The earlier the better. It could be the difference between successs and failure in the market.
Which do you think would work better in the current economic downturn? Would you prefer to let your problems fester or would you rather them be out in the open, transparent for everyone to work on, think about, to get solutions to. You would be surprised by peoples ability to deal with bad news if the culture they work within is supportive, collaborative and inclusive.
If you can’t deal with the elephant in the room, then I’ll raise a toast to you when the upturn finally comes, if you make it.
That’s how I described my philosophy towards the credit crunch on
BBC Radio Manchester tonight. You can listen to the show
here (forward wind the iplayer to 1hr 47mins in the show for the Manchester business slot). The media has been fascinated with hyping up the credit crunch since the first stories broke and my debit punch is the counterblow to it.
There are plenty of businesses out there with plenty of cash. Plenty of businesses still doing well – even in the current economic climate, these businesses are resilient to the credit crunch and they are busy growing, expanding and getting on. They aren’t talking down their opportunities, they’re seeking them out and taking advantage of the squeeze to get even better deals. They’re out there, seek them out.
Here’s an interesting one. Hit the deadline with a half decent report or miss the deadline and generate an amazing report. What would you do?
There’s no right or wrong answer to this one as circumstances, importance and impacts are always different. The Army, for example, say that a 90% delivered project on time, is better than a 100% project delivered late. But, lives are at risk, so impact is high, hit the deadline or lives could be lost.
In business however, it might make the absolute difference between success and failure if the content of the report is not what it should be, regardless of time. My point is not to set unrealistic deadlines for things. Yes, time is precious, yes speed to market is vital, however you may risk missing that vital idea or detail if your deadlines are too unrealistic and people are working under too much pressure.
Instead, detail which things you need to see first, which are most important. It may well be that an executive summary can come before the full blown report and detail or you decide on one or two essential factors in project delivery which are deadline dependent, but other stuff can wait.
I remember going to an innovation forum where the advice was never to rush brainstorming too much as the top 10% of implemented ideas came in the back 10% of your brainstorm session, it changed my perspective, like looking down the wrong end of a telescope.
So, continue to be bold, be ambitious, dream and inspire, but above all be realistic.
….
You’d have to be if you’d invested in this fellow – Bernard Madoff - who is at the centre of a $50bn fraud in the US, tricking everyone from hedge fund managers and investment banks to wealthy individuals.
Such was the legend of this perceived “midas touch” Wall street broker, that to be invited into the circle of clients was simply money as good as made. It was a pyramid scheme as he took money off new clients and regenerated it to others, therefore maintaining his image to the outside world.
Listening to an interview on Radio Two today, many brokers were waving red flags a long time ago at his guaranteed 10% return, saying that it was too good to be true, however greed got the better of everyone and the ending is an expensive lesson.
It’s going to be an interesting few days for his auditors, Friehling & Horowitz, amazingly a three person business (one was a secretary) operating out of a 13×8 office, auditing a $17bn dollar a year organisation, now if that doesn’t smell funny….
My issue is, are the US government now going to introduce further knee jerk pieces of legislation to line the pockets of the big audit firms? Sarbanes-Oxley, for all the good it does, has also meant tens of thousands of days in additional audit days for the big players (thank you very much). I hope that we don’t see a repeat here, jurys out.
Attending a meeting today, reminded me of the need for honesty in business negotiations. Not to walk away having thought one thing and said another, have you ever done that? I remember doing it in the early days of my career and regretting it, a lesson learned the hard way.
Clarity is so important. Clarity provides the basis upon which things can move forward, a clear understanding of where both parties sit. The more clarity you can generate, the easier it is for people to do their jobs and understand where they slot into your plans and organisation.
Clarity and honesty go hand in hand. If you can be straight, if you can establish your true position early, it’s surprising how people react, how they can work to resolve the common issue, how outcomes are reached more easily, how your credibility grows.
Speaking at the Smart City futures workshop this morning,
Professor James Powell OBE, Pro Vice Chancellor of Academic Enterprise at Salford University, asked me how he could get private sector business more engaged in the excellent work that he and his colleagues are driving. My reply was: -
a) Businesses in Greater Manchester are suffering from initiative overload and fatigue. One downside of being in a progressive city is that there seems to be a small nucleus of key people who are passionate about it’s future, therefore they are asked to participate on just about every initiative going. Businesspeople need things rolling up, aggregating and turning into a more joined up piece of work (which James is striving for), with fewer people, tigher timelines and accountability.
b) Business is focussed on the “here and now”. Unprecedented times, recession, all hands on deck etc. The Universities could really assist Manchester business now by helping us all by throwing out the right questions to business, using their knowledge to optimise success in a downturn, giving thought leadership in the City region. Think Harvard Business Review with a Manchester feel. We have three brilliant universities in this City, with brilliant minds, all we need is the right translation to businesspeople.
c)
Business wants an ROI from the things it invests in. Be it money, time or human capital. Academia sometimes has a poor reputation with business as the rubber doesn’t go on the road often enough, seminars end up as talking shops, things take too long. I liked James, I think he is a doer, he deserves the support of business on the key elements of
Smart City futures that industry can take the lead on.
Businesses are the wealth creators in any region.
Smart City Futures depends on businesses to give their input and direction to its mandate.
Get involved, shape something, participate, create and help build a legacy for the city region.
Speaking at a breakfast briefing this morning,
Richard Holway of tech industry analysts TechMarket Review LLP used these words to describe the philosophy that he feels should prevail during these turbulent times, those that focus on doing the basics right, minimising costs, surviving, will be the strongest. Being boring is how many of the big players will get through.
I don’t agree, you should be doing the basics anyway, that’s the day job. I think it’s the year to innovate, to generate something new, to examine your business models to free think.
On the same panel was
Rory Cellan Jones, technology correspondent for the BBC and Philip Stafford from the
FT. Both predicted the year for “coldtech”, that is, people being focused on getting more for less. With major projects needing “fast ROI’s” and “now” benefits i.e., in the current financial year.
Both also commented in response to a question from me about “green computing” that business will put environmental issues lower down the agenda as they strive for economic benefits. Unfortunately, the
100Months tipping point in global temperatures can’t be reset, so there is a definite clash in KPI’s there (again) for those trying to reduce carbon output.
Everyone seemed to be excited about cloud computing , defiinite buzzword if you want to impress your tecchy friends that you are hooked into the latest thinking. To you and me, it’s hosting your data somewhere other than your office and having it delivered to you on your mobile device of desktop instead of constantly sitting with you on your PC or server. Bring it up at your next dinner party and see how long it takes for your guests to ask for a taxi.
By contrast, this afternoon I’ve sat on a panel to judge our
Office Heroes award in conjunction with
Growing Business magazine. Some fantastic people, providing the back office backbone to many entrepreneurs and growing businesses.
On the panel with me were two interesting guys,
Jamie Murray Wells, founder of
glasses direct and
Ben Way of
Rainmakers a technology incubator with around 25 businesses currently in the fold. Both are typical entrepreneurs, running highly successful businesses and it was interesting to hear their view of the world and business in general. UK plc need guys like this to turboboost thinking and launching new businesses as inspiration to others.
